Early growth of 3.5G limited by lack of handsets

The number of 3.5G mobile broadband subscribers is set to grow more than ten fold from 2.5 million in 2006 to more than 300 million in 2011, according to Future Mobile Broadband: HSDPA, EV-DO, WiMAX & LTE, a new report from Informa Telecoms & Media. It defines 3.5G mobile broadband subscribers as those using HSDPA, HSUPA or EV-DO Revision A (or B), which offer faster data than plain old third-generation mobile (3G).

However, Malik Saadi, principal analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media and co-author of the report, says that growth in 2006-07 will be restrained by a lack of compelling devices and content. He notes that most HSDPA services are launching with only PC cards and notebooks, although a number of early handsets are also arriving. "It is striking that as of June no major vendor has unveiled plans for EV-DO Rev. A handsets, although data cards are on the way," he says.

Saadi expects handsets to start to mature in 2008, leading to a sharp increase in 3.5G handset sales and subscribers in 2008-09. By 2011, 85% of 3.5G devices sold will be handsets, and the remaining 15% will be notebooks and PC cards, says the report.

It predicts that: "Mobile WiMAX will play a relatively minor role in the mobile broadband market through 2011, largely because Mobile WiMAX notebooks and tablets will not arrive in volume until 2008-09, and compelling Mobile WiMAX handsets won't arrive until 2010.

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